A Very Convenient Warming 2023, 133 pgs by Gregory Wrightstone, M.S. Geology
Mr. Wrightstone (Mr. Wr) is also the author Inconvenient Facts and an Expert Reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). He has authored or co-authored more than 200 papers, publications and commentaries concerning climate change and energy. He the present director of the CO2 coalition, a think tank on climate change. Home – CO2 Coalition. The coalition began in 2015 by founder Dr. William Harpper.(Dr. WH) The book is very well documented with references and has 82 figures and charts. It has and old earth perspective of the earth being millions of yrs old. Dr. Harpper acknowledges Wrightstone as a climate change expert. He states in his forward, “the best educated men and most prosperous members of the developed world have been the most thoroughly deluded about climate change. This is not unprecedented. Over half of the judges at the Salem witch trials had attended Harvard Univ. Most were prosperous businessmen, similar to the elites who attended the 2023 World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland. There Harvard Graduate and former vice President, Al Gore said:” “Were still putting 162 million tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere every single day, and the accumulated amount is now trapping as much heat as would be released by 600,000 Hiroshima-class atomic bombs– every day. That’s what’s boiling the oceans, creating atmospheric rivers, and the rain bombs, and sucking the moisture out of the lands, and creating droughts, and melting the ice, ad raising the sea level and causing climate change refugees.” Dr. WH says “wow, boiling oceans, and rain bombs, who would have thought?” and Climate Czar and former Sec. of State for Pres. Obama, John Kerry a democrat, agreed. However the true facts are in Mr. Wr’s book. The modest warming from increasing greenhouse gasses and CO2 will be benign. In fact the more CO2 will bring huge benefits, to agriculture, forestry, and life in general.” Mr. Wr. notes on pg 3 the major greenhouse gasses (GHG) are as follows: Water vapor is the dominate GHG accounting for 75-95 % of the warming potential. CO2 is responsible for 5-25% of the GHG warming potential. About 10% of the solar radiation is ultraviolet-UV which is absorbed by the ozone layer in the earth’s high atmosphere. Of the remaining sunlight, about 30% is reflected by clouds, and the rest passes to the earth’s land and oceans and is absorbed. Some is re-emitted as infrared- IR waves. These waves can go in all directions and pass through most of the atmosphere, but are absorbed and reflected back to earth by the clouds and GHG. This the GHG effect. Doubling the current CO2 of 400 ppm only increases this infrared absorption and reflection back by only a few percent. The reason is that 400 ppm of CO2 has already absorbed all of the IR energy and adding more CO2 makes little difference. Fig 2 shows this pg 6. Another GHG is N2O which can be released from Nitrogen fertilizers. The author cites papers that nitrogen fertilizers have a very minimal effect on global warming; but they have a great beneficial effect on crop growth. Green energy advocates favor eliminating nitrogen fertilizers, but this would greatly reduce crop growth and promote starvation in some areas, pg 7. The book chapters show that man made GHG have a very minimal effect on global warming, but will be beneficial to agriculture as CO2 increases plant growth.pg
CO2 history: The CO2 in the atmosphere in 2023 was about 424 ppm, this was and increase of 144 ppm from the mid 1800’s before the industrial revolution. Since the 1960’s, Coal and oil burning were the main sources of industrial CO2, now natural gas is also a part of the total, fig. 4 pg 10. For global fossil fuel emissions, China surpassed the US in 2004, and by 2022 China has double the emissions of all other counties combined. fig 5 pg 11. The CO2 increased from 314 ppm in 1958 to to 424 ppm in May 2023 fig 6. Fig 8 shows that a good portion of the CO2 is sequestered by photosynthesis into plants and also in carbonate rocks including limestone. Vegetation and algae in the oceans die and sinks, is buried and forms gas and oil deposits. Ice cores show that many times in earth history that CO2 was up to 300 ppm, and there was even a time in early earth history when it was 4000 ppm. Increased CO2 has been shown to increase crop growth, soil moisture, expanding forests, longer growing seasons. Some Biden issued government reports seamed to show recent global warming reduced the US Gross Domestic Product index by 0.5% , but this appears misleading.
Temperature data history: Those predicting a temp. catastrophe from man made global warming, say that we dare not cross a threshold that exceeds 1.5C (2.7F) from the temp before the industrial revolution(1860 2023( about 172 yrs )What is unsaid, is that we have already had and increase of 1.2 C(2.2F), so only 0.3C (0.5F) stand in the way of planetary doom. Does this make send to you? Consider this: a 0.5F change occurs for every 280 ft change in elevation; At mid latitudes, you get a 0.5F change from moving north or south by just 17 miles; To affect crop growth much one needs about a 10F change. The recent data 1979- 2023 shows a minor increase of atmosphere temp. of about .14C (.25F) per decade-10 yrs. This is projected to give about 1.1 C increase by 2100. By comparing the CO2 data Fig. 9 to 2 temp data rise periods( 1910-1945 vs 1976-1998) it appears the temp increase was about the same, but the CO2 increase was much greater for the later period, indicating the CO2 increase was not fully responsible for the temp. increase. When one examines long term temp. data( 1659-2019) Fig 20 pg 31 there appears to be changes of 1C in history that were un-affected by global CO2 and industrialization. Fig 21 tracks glacier shortening which began in 1820 and has maintained a straight line of melting up to the yr 2000 and a small sea level rise also follows this in fig 23. This does not seam to show CO2 and industrial emission have affected this. In fig. 31,32 and 34 using various longer time periods and there is reverse correlation of CO2 and temp. Thus other factors can cause temp change both up and down. Changes in solar radiance do affect atmospheric temps. p116. One must cherry pick your data to show any positive correlation.
Human history and Climate change: Blessed warmth and Horrific Cold: In W. Behringer’s book ‘A Cultural History of Climate’ He noted cold periods always resulted in major social upheavals and problems while warm periods led to the blossoming of culture.pg 49. Fig. 41 is a chart showing the history from 1500 BC to 2000 AD. It clearly shows warm periods were of great progress and thriving, while cold periods were historically labeled the dark ages and bad for humanity, pgs 53-76 document these histories and pg 77, Fig 49 is another chart documenting the history from 4000 BC to 2000 AD, giving similar conclusions. I spite of this, recent democratic climate advocates claim, there is great danger in a minor global warming of 0.5F. In the cold periods the glaciers advanced. In the cold period of 1536-1675 AD, thousands of witches were killed. Many were elderly women living without husbands.,pg 71-2. and were burned at the stake.
Natural disasters and Disaster deaths: One chart Fig 50 pg 80 tracks disaster from 1970 to 2019. It show what appeared to be increasing recent disasters. However upon checking data, the early 30 yrs 1970-2000 had a greatly under reported disasters due to a different way of reporting disasters. Fig 52 pg 82 shows a correct type of reporting for 1920 to 2010-19. This show a declining trend of disaster deaths. The types of disasters traced in the first chart include droughts, extreme temps, floods, landslides, storms, and wildfires.,one problem is that these charts do not show the most recent data beyond 2020. Fig 55 tracks heat waves by EPA data. If one uses long term data: 1890-2020, by far the biggest time of heat waves were in the 1930’s the recent data does not appear unusual. But If one uses the data from 1960 -2022, the heat wave frequency appears increasing recently. Fig 58 shows declining drought and increased rainfall over the long term, starting from 1901. Fig. 62 show increased acres burned from wildfires from 1984 to 2020. However if one uses long term data starting in 1926 (chart 63) there is greatly decreasing trend to a lowest point in 1984 after which fires increase some recently. Thus by cherry picking the chart start date at 1984 one gets what appears as increasing trend. Chart 64 shows a reverse correlation with wildfires and atmosphere CO2. Many charts show a positive correlation of plant growth and crop harvest with CO2. Increased temps lengthen the growing season and crop harvest in general. Fig 75 and 76 show a strong correlation of Nitrogen fertilizer use and crop yields. Fig 82 shows the rate of extinctions decreasing, p 114. I didn’t seen this book where the tends of earthquakes and volcanoes were well tracked. Many of the book charts end in 2020, but some go to the end of 2022. So the data for latter of 2023, 2024 and 2025 is missing. The recent fires in California and Canada are missing, as are the 2024 hurricanes.